Breeding phenology in Rana temporaria. Local variation is due to pond temperature and population size

Frog breeding phenology in temperate zones is usually compared to progress of spring temperatures at a regional scale. However, local populations may differ substantially in phenology. To understand this, local climate and other aspects must be studied. In this study, breeding phenology of the common frog, Rana temporaria, in a set of ponds in southern Sweden is analyzed. There was within year a variation of up to 3 weeks in start of breeding among local populations. Water temperature was measured in the ponds, and breeding tended to be earlier in warmer ponds (surprise!). Breeding was also earlier in ponds with a large breeding congregation. Alternative reasons for these patterns are suggested and discussed. There was a large residual variation. The common frog has a wide range of acceptable wintering sites, and I hypothesize that the particular choice by a local population may explain part of this residual variation.